VTB: Russian deposit market to grow in 2022 for first time in three years

Since the start of 2021 the portfolio of funds raised from VTB retail customers has increased by 15,8% and is approaching RUB 8 trillion. Terms deposits have also registered growth. This year the Russian deposit market will grow for the first time in three years. This was announced by Anatoly Pechatnikov, VTB Deputy President and Chairman, at «RUSSIA CALLING!» investment forum by VTB Capital.

According to VTB forecasts, the continuing trend to raise the key rate and deposit profitability will lead to accelerated growth of the term savings product portfolio. Next year the retail deposit market will grow by 6% after two years of decline. The growth will be primarily driven by an almost 10% increase in the volume of ruble deposits and a decrease in FX deposit volume. Further de-dollarization of the portfolio will be supported by high ruble product rates with underlying stabilization of the exchange rate of the national currency.

Overall, the market of classic liabilities, according to VTB forecasts, will grow by about 5% in 2022. Demand deposit dynamics are expected to slow down in the coming year: VTB forecasts that by the end of the year there will be about RUB 14,5 trillion at deposits in Russian banks. A similar volume will for the first time be reached by the investment portfolio of retail customers, going up by about 30% versus 2021. Investment portfolio growth rates will decelerate due to high ruble deposit rates, comparable with conservative strategy yields.

«On the horizon of 2022-2023 classic deposits will be „reborn“, drawing greater interest in all segments. We will see simultaneous de-dollarization of the market portfolio: if no force majeure events happen on the 1-2 year horizon, a relatively stable ruble could be expected, and dollar and euro deposits will be unprofitable as savings due to extremely low FX deposit rates. This is why FX share will only be climbing in the segment of demand deposits, used for settlement purposes. Deposits and investment tools will be driving inflow of retail customer funds in 2022, and the share of savings accounts will gradually decline. VTB expects to traditionally outperform the market of savings products», — noted Anatoly Pechatnikov.

As at the end of November, the volume of VTB retail savings portfolio exceeded RUB 7,9 trillion. The portfolio of classic liabilities remained at the level of RUB 4,7 trillion with slight growth (about 2%) versus the year’s start. For the first time in a few years there was growth of the amount of funds in retail deposit accounts, which in November reached up to RUB 2,3 trillion and exceeded the figures for June by 21%. The savings account portfolio on the partial year basis has increased by 7,5%.

The highest dynamics were traditionally demonstrated by retail investment instrument volumes: since the start of the year the volume went up by 29% — up to RUB 2,4 trillion. The demand for subordinated bonds of the bank has increased from the start of the year by 3,6 times to RUB 214 billion and has gone above the target for 2021. The escrow account portfolio has increased twofold.